Keywords
Money supply
Interest rate
Inflation
Trade balance
How to Cite
Abstract
The study examines the impact of money supply, BI Rate, inflation, and trade balance on the rupiah-US dollar exchange
rate.This study aims to examine the influence of the money supply, the BI Rate interest rate level, inflation, and the
trade balance on the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar. The research approach used is quantitative,
applying multiple linear regression analysis as the data analysis method. The research data consists of secondary
time-series monthly data for the period 2020–2024 with a total of 60 observations sourced from Bank Indonesia, the
Central Statistics Agency, and One Data Indonesia. The analysis stages include descriptive statistics, classical
assumption testing, simultaneous testing using the F-test, partial testing through the t-test, and measurement of the
coefficient of determination. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously, the money supply, interest rates,
inflation, and trade balance have a significant impact on the rupiah exchange rate. Partially, only the money supply
has a positive and significant influence, indicating that an increase in domestic liquidity tends to cause a weakening
of the rupiah value due to the increasing demand for foreign currency. Meanwhile, the interest rate level, inflation,
and trade balance do not show significant individual influence. The coefficient of determination value shows that the
independent variables in the model can explain 73.4% of the variation in the exchange rate, while the rest is explained
by other factors outside the scope of the study. These findings strengthen empirical evidence regarding the dominance
of monetary factors, specifically the money supply, in influencing the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia.
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