Keywords
Interest rate
Foreign exchange reserves
Money supply
How to Cite
Abstract
This study aims to examine the influence of inflation, interest rates, foreign exchange reserves, and the money supply
on the Rupiah exchange rate, in order to verify the Quantity Theory of Money in the Indonesian economic context. An
associative quantitative approach was applied to 60 observations of secondary time series data, processed through
multiple linear regression. The empirical analysis indicates that collectively, these macroeconomic variables strongly
influence the exchange rate, with the model explaining up to 96.6 percent of the variation. Specifically, foreign
exchange reserves and the money supply exhibit positive and significant effects, confirming that increased liquidity
tends to weaken the exchange rate. On the other hand, inflation and interest rates proved insignificant, reflecting a
weak market response to such short-term policies. This study provides empirical evidence that fundamental monetary
factors based on money volume are more dominant than interest rates in influencing the exchange rate. Therefore,
regulators are advised to prioritize tight control of the money supply in exchange rate stabilization strategies, rather
than relying solely on adjustments to the benchmark interest rate.
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